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Prognostic value of glycemic gap in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction-associated acute kidney injury
BMC Nephrology volume 26, Article number: 243 (2025)
Abstract
Background
Stress-induced hyperglycemia (SIH) is a common phenomenon in acute myocardial infarction and is associated with poor prognosis. The relationship between glycemic gap (GG), a marker of SIH, and ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI)-associated acute kidney injury (STAAKI) remains unclear. This study aims to explore the predictive value of GG for the risk of STAAKI after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in STEMI patients.
Methods
This study retrospectively selected patients diagnosed with STEMI who underwent primary PCI. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors associated with STAAKI. To examine the dose-response relationship between GG and STAAKI, restricted cubic splines (RCS) were employed. The predictive accuracy of the models was assessed using Delong test, net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI).
Results
This study included 595 patients, the incidence of STAAKI was 9.2%. Multivariate logistic regression showed LVEF (OR per 1% increase = 0.931, 95% CI: 0.895 ~ 0.969), NT-proBNP (OR per 1 pg/mL increase = 1.579, 95% CI: 1.212 ~ 2.057), and GG (OR per 1 mmol/L increase = 1.379, 95% CI: 1.223 ~ 1.554) as independent predictors of STAAKI. RCS analysis indicated a linear dose-response relationship between GG and STAAKI. After integrating GG, the new model could significantly improve the risk model for STAAKI (Z = 2.77, NRI = 0.780, and IDI = 0.095; All P < 0.05).
Conclusion
GG is an independent risk factor for the occurrence of STAAKI after PCI in STEMI patients, and integrating GG can significantly improve risk modeling regarding STAAKI.
Clinical trial number
Not applicable.
Introduction
Early restoration of coronary blood flow through percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) plays a crucial role in improving the prognosis of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) [1]. STEMI-induced acute kidney injury (STAAKI) has become a common cause of in-hospital acute kidney injury (AKI) [2,3,4]. STAAKI is closely associated with poor clinical outcomes and prolonged hospital stays [4, 5]. Due to the limited therapeutic options for STAAKI in clinical practice and its high incidence, accurately identifying high-risk STEMI patients is of significant value [6].
In critically ill patients, the secretion of hormones such as cortisol, catecholamines, and glucagon significantly increases, leading to stress-induced hyperglycemia (SIH) [7]. Admission blood glucose (ABG) has been used in some studies as a marker of SIH to predict the risk of adverse events [8, 9]. However, the relationship between ABG and adverse outcomes in acute patients, with or without diabetes, is inconsistent [10, 11]. Since ABG values are also influenced by chronic blood glucose levels, they do not accurately reflect the true extent of SIH [12, 13]. Glycemic gap (GG), derived from the ABG adjusted for chronic blood glucose status via glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), is considered a superior marker of SIH compared to ABG, as it partially eliminates the impact of chronic hyperglycemia on disease severity assessment, thus improving the accuracy of the evaluation [14,15,16]. A substantial body of evidence has confirmed that GG levels in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients are closely related to adverse cardiovascular outcomes, with GG showing superior predictive value for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) compared to ABG [17,18,19]. However, the relationship between GG and STAAKI in STEMI patients remains unclear. This study aims to explore the predictive value of GG for the risk of STAAKI after PCI in STEMI patients.
Methods
Study population
This study retrospectively selected patients who were admitted to Yichun People’s Hospital from January 2021 to October 2024, diagnosed with STEMI [20]. Inclusion criteria: (1) age > 18 years; (2) successful PCI treatment within 12 h of symptom onset (TIMI = 3); (3) complete clinical data. Exclusion criteria: (1) history of myocardial infarction or coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG); (2) hemodialysis or chronic renal failure; (3) inflammatory diseases or malignant neoplasms; (4) exposure to other radiographic contrast agents or nephrotoxic medications [21] within 48 h before or 72 h after the procedure. The study flowchart was shown in Fig. 1. The study protocol was approved by the Ethics Committee of Yichun People’s Hospital and was in compliance with the Helsinki Declaration (Ethics number: 2024 − 304). Given that this study was a retrospective observational study with no harm to patients, informed consent was waived.
Data collection
Data on age, gender, risk factors (including smoking, hypertension, diabetes, and chronic kidney disease) were collected and recorded through the electronic medical record system. Serum creatinine (Scr) levels before PCI, and Scr measurements taken 48–72 h after contrast agent exposure were collected. STAAKI was defined as a Scr increase of at least 50% or 0.3 mg/dL within 48–72 h following contrast exposure [22]. In addition, other blood test results during hospitalization, including ABG, HbA1c, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), peak C-reactive protein (CRP), peak high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT), and peak N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), were also collected and recorded. According to previous literature, A1C-derived average glucose (ADAG, mmol/L) = (1.59×HbA1c) − 2.59, and GG (mmol/L) = ABG - ADAG [23]. All PCI-related procedures were performed according to the STEMI guideline [20].
Statistical analysis
Data were analyzed using SPSS 27.0 (IBM, Chicago, USA) and R (version 4.3.1). The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to assess data normality. Continuous variables with normal distribution were presented as mean ± standard deviation (SD) and analyzed using t-tests. Non-normally distributed continuous variables were expressed as median (Q25, Q75) and analyzed using the Mann-Whitney U test. Categorical variables were presented as frequencies and percentages, and analyzed using the χ² test. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to assess the diagnostic value of GG for STAAKI in STEMI patients. Comparisons between the areas under the curve (AUC) were made using the Delong test. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors associated with STAAKI. To examine the dose-response relationship between GG and STAAKI, restricted cubic splines (RCS) were employed. The predictive accuracy of the models was assessed using the net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). A p-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.
Results
Patient characteristics
This study included 595 patients, of which 24.0% were female, with a mean age of 63.17 ± 13.18 years. The incidence of STAAKI was 9.2%. Patients in the STAAKI group had higher ABG, GG (t- statistic = 6.89), CRP, and NT-proBNP, and a higher prevalence of diabetes, use of diuretics and left anterior descending artery (LAD) lesion. Additionally, they had a lower left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) compared to those in the No STAAKI group. All differences were statistically significant (P < 0.05) (Table 1).
Logistic regression analysis of STAAKI
Univariate logistic regression revealed that ABG, GG, NT-proBNP, diabetes, LAD, diuretics and LVEF were significantly associated with the development of STAAKI (P < 0.05). After adjusting GG, NT-proBNP, diabetes, LAD, diuretics and LVEF, multivariate logistic regression showed LVEF (OR per 1% increase = 0.931, 95% CI: 0.895 ~ 0.969), NT-proBNP (OR per 1 pg/mL increase = 1.579, 95% CI: 1.212 ~ 2.057), and GG (OR per 1 mmol/L increase = 1.379, 95% CI: 1.223 ~ 1.554) as independent predictors of STAAKI (Table 2). RCS analysis indicated a linear dose-response relationship between GG and STAAKI both before and after adjustments (using the logistic regression), suggesting that higher GG levels are associated with an increased risk of STAAKI (Fig. 2). In the subgroup analysis, univariate logistic regression showed GG (OR per 1 mmol/L increase = 1.614, 95% CI: 1.238 ~ 2.105, P < 0.001) was associated with STAAKI in patients with diabetes. In patients without diabetes, GG (OR per 1 mmol/L increase = 1.365, 95% CI: 1.199 ~ 1.554, P < 0.001) was also associated with STAAKI (Supplementary Table 1).
ROC analysis of STAAKI
ROC analysis demonstrated that the AUC for LVEF, ABG, NT-proBNP, diabetes, and GG in predicting STAAKI were 0.673, 0.654, 0.710, 0.565, and 0.734, respectively (P < 0.05). The optimal cutoff value for GG was 0.603 mmol/L, yielding a sensitivity of 69.1% and specificity of 74.1%. The Delong test suggested that the AUC of GG was larger than that of ABG (Z = 3.129, P = 0.002) and diabetes (Z = 3.116, P = 0.002). (Supplementary Table 2, Table 3; Fig. 3). In the subgroup analysis, ROC analysis showed the AUC for GG was 0.717 (P = 0.001), the optimal cutoff value was 0.740 mmol/L, yielding a sensitivity of 66.7% and specificity of 77.9% in patients with diabetes. In patients without diabetes, the AUC for GG was 0.750 (P < 0.001), the optimal cutoff value was 0.459 mmol/L, yielding a sensitivity of 73.5% and specificity of 70.8% (Supplementary Table 3).
Predictive accuracy of the models
A baseline model (LVEF, and NT-proBNP) was constructed based on the multivariate logistic regression. ROC analysis showed that the baseline model had an AUC of 0.746 (95% CI: 0.689 ~ 0.803), with a sensitivity of 81.8% and specificity of 59.8%. The new model that integrating GG (LVEF, NT-proBNP, and GG) had an AUC of 0.809 (95% CI: 0.755 ~ 0.863), with a sensitivity of 76.4% and specificity of 75.2%. The Delong test suggested that the AUC of the new model was significantly larger than that of the baseline model (Z = 2.77, P = 0.006). NRI and IDI for the new model were 0.780 (0.5157 ~ 1.0446), P < 0.001, and 0.095 (0.0493 ~ 0.1397), P < 0.001, respectively. These findings indicate that the new model significantly improves the risk model for STAAKI in STEMI patients (Table 4; Fig. 4, Supplementary Table 4).
Discussion
The main findings of this study are as follows: first, elevated GG is an independent risk factor for STAAKI in STEMI patients; second, there is a linear dose-response relationship between GG and STAAKI; and third, integrating GG significantly improves the risk model for STAAKI.
Compared to the general population, the incidence of STAAKI after coronary angiography is significantly higher in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and diabetes [24, 25]. In our study, the incidence of STAAKI in STEMI patients after primary PCI was 9.2%, which is consistent with previous research findings [26, 27]. Clinically, the management of STAAKI remains focused on prevention. Therefore, identifying more risk factors for STAAKI and optimizing risk stratification holds significant clinical value.
SIH generally refers to a transient increase in blood glucose levels caused by the activation of the sympathetic nervous system during critical conditions. It has been identified as an important indicator of the severity of various diseases and conditions, including surgery, acute ischemic stroke, and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) [28, 29]. Currently, the main indicators for SIH include ABG and GG. However, ABG levels are influenced by both acute physiological stress and chronic baseline blood glucose levels, and therefore, they do not accurately reflect the extent of SIH in acute disease states [12, 13]. GG quantifies the relative increase in chronic blood glucose during acute disease states, truly reflecting the acute hyperglycemic condition, and has a strong correlation with disease severity and prognosis [14,15,16,17,18,19]. For AKI patients, an elevated ABG level does not necessarily indicate stress-induced hyperglycemia [30]. A large body of evidence has confirmed that GG levels are more predictive of adverse cardiovascular outcomes than ABG levels in AMI patients [17,18,19, 31, 32]. However, the relationship between GG levels and STAAKI in STEMI patients remains unclear. Our study innovatively found that elevated GG was an independent risk factor for STAAKI in STEMI patients, and RCS showed a linear dose-response relationship between GG and STAAKI. In fact, the close relationship between SIH and renal injury has been established in many studies. A rapid increase in blood glucose can cause osmotic diuresis, leading to renal hypoperfusion and damage [33]. Moreover, SIH can trigger abnormal activation of the sympathetic nervous system, excessive release of catecholamines and cortisol, oxidative stress, inflammation, endothelial dysfunction, thrombosis, and ischemia-reperfusion injury, all of which may result in further cardiac injury, reduced renal reperfusion, and ultimately lead to AKI [34,35,36]. In our study, both ABG and diabetes were also found to be associated with the risk of STAAKI, but consistent with previous studies [17,18,19], the ROC results indicated that GG had a significantly stronger predictive ability for STAAKI than ABG and diabetes. Furthermore, our study also demonstrated that GG could notably improve the risk model for STAAKI. Therefore, our findings provide additional information for risk stratification of STAAKI after PCI in STEMI patients. GG, as a simple and effective biomarker, could be widely used for screening high-risk populations of STAAKI after PCI in STEMI patients. Clinically, patients with elevated GG levels may require more attention and strategic management, such as hydration and choice of surgical approach.
Limitations
First, due to the inherent limitations of retrospective studies, the current findings could not demonstrate an exact causal relationship between elevated GG and STAAKI. Second, the sample size of the present study was valid and all were patients diagnosed with STEMI; therefore, some of the findings may need to be replicated in other diseases. Third, although our study has demonstrated that there is a relationship between GG and STAAKI. However, the specific mechanism regarding the risk of elevated GG and the occurrence of STAAKI is not clear, which may require more basic research to clarify.
Conclusions
GG is an independent risk factor for the occurrence of STAAKI after PCI in STEMI patients, and integrating GG can significantly improve risk modeling regarding STAAKI.
Data availability
The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available by request form Ziyun Luo (312179045@qq.com) or Jianping Xu (xjp_hh@163.com).
Abbreviations
- PCI:
-
Percutaneous coronary intervention
- STEMI:
-
ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction
- STAAKI:
-
STEMI-induced acute kidney injury
- SIH:
-
Stress-induced hyperglycemia
- ABG:
-
Admission blood glucose
- GG:
-
Glycemic gap
- AMI:
-
Acute myocardial infarction
- MACE:
-
Major adverse cardiovascular events
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This work was partly supported by Medical and Health Technology Project of Hangzhou (Grant B20231533) and Zhejiang Provincial Medical and Health Technology Project (Grant 2024KY1447).
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XFZ, ZYL, YL, QHY, SWW, YS, and SQ collected or analyzed the data. XFZ and YL wrote the manuscript. XFZ, ZYL and JPX directed the entire research work and corrected the articles.
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The study protocol was approved by the Ethics Committee of Yichun People’s Hospital and was in compliance with the Helsinki Declaration (Ethics number: 2024 − 304). Given that this study was a retrospective observational study with no harm to patients, informed consent was waived.
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Zhang, X., Li, Y., Yang, Q. et al. Prognostic value of glycemic gap in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction-associated acute kidney injury. BMC Nephrol 26, 243 (2025). https://doiorg.publicaciones.saludcastillayleon.es/10.1186/s12882-025-04167-3
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DOI: https://doiorg.publicaciones.saludcastillayleon.es/10.1186/s12882-025-04167-3