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Prevalence of chronic kidney disease in Saudi Arabia: an epidemiological population-based study
BMC Nephrology volume 26, Article number: 37 (2025)
Abstract
Background
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a prevalent global health issue affecting millions of patients worldwide, impacting quality of life, impeding physical and psychological well-being, causing financial stress, and increasing mortality rates. This study aimed to highlight the prevalence of CKD and its associated risk factors across Saudi Arabia. Method: This is a cross-sectional study conducted from 2015 to 2022, using data from 42 branches of a major network of diagnostic laboratories in Saudi Arabia, covering the country's 13 administrative areas.
Results
The mean age was 40.35 ± 14.5 years. The highest proportion of participants resided in the Makkah region at 35.77%, followed by the Riyadh region at 25.75%. The overall prevalence of CKD was 4.76%, with most having CKD in stage 3 (3.5%). The prevalence of CKD was higher among males compared to females (5.83% vs. 3.88%) and increased significantly with age, being 0.45% among participants aged 18–29 years and reaching 50.94% among participants aged 90 years or older. Predictors of CKD included increasing age, male sex, administrative area (Makkah 1.40 [95% CI:1.26–1.55], Jazan 1.34 [95% CI:1.18–1.52], Najran 0.47 [95% CI, 0.39–0.57], Alqasim 0.73 [95% CI, 0.64–0.82]), and a high hemoglobin A1C. CKD in Saudi Arabia is influenced by various demographic and geographic determinants contributing to its prevalence and associated burden on the population.
Conclusion
These findings emphasize the need for targeted screening and prevention strategies, especially for at-risk populations. Continued surveillance, early detection, and effective management are crucial to reducing CKD's burden and improving kidney health outcomes in Saudi Arabia. Further research is essential to better understand the disease's regional and demographic drivers.
Introduction
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a common global health condition that affects millions of patients worldwide [1]. It is associated with a substantial burden, affecting quality of life, physical and psychological well-being, financial stress, mortality, and more [2]. As of 2017, a study reported that around 9.1% of the global population is affected by CKD, which accounts for roughly 700 million cases. The study also revealed that since 1990, the overall prevalence of CKD has increased by 29.3%, but the age-standardized prevalence has remained unchanged [3].
Saudi Arabia's total population was approximately 32 million in the 2022 census. The country is administratively and geographically divided into 13 administrative areas with variable features. Each area has a branch for the ministry of health managing the healthcare services and programs. Detecting differences in CKD prevalence or identifying specific patterns across these areas can help policymakers focus on certain factors and allocate resources more effectively. The population is predominantly young, with a significant proportion under the age of 30 [4]. In 2019, the Saudi Center for Organ Transplantation (SCOT) reported the total number of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients in Saudi Arabia to be 28,256 [5]. Patients with ESRD, including those who have undergone transplants, are well-documented due to the nature of unified dialysis and transplant care in the country. However, data on the non-dialysis population of CKD patients in Saudi Arabia could be much better, with studies to date having small sample sizes, being limited to specific geographical areas, or focusing on populations known to be at risk [6, 7]. Diabetes mellitus (DM) and hypertension are the leading causes of ESRD in Saudi Arabia [8, 9]. According to a national survey, the prevalence of DM in Saudi Arabia reaches up to 39% in certain age groups [10]. Meanwhile, the prevalence of hypertension varies widely in national studies, ranging between 15% and 33%. A meta-analysis reported a pooled prevalence of 35% [11].
Lifestyle changes and daily habits are likely to impact the prevalence of several diseases, including CKD, and thereby contribute further to the already high rates of obesity, CKD, and hypertension [12]. Additionally, geographical factors unique to Saudi Arabia, such as the heat and high altitude in certain areas, must be considered. As such, a thorough understanding of the epidemiology of CKD within Saudi Arabia is essential for effective future planning in healthcare and budget allocation [13]. This study hypothesizes that Saudi Arabia is likely to have a higher prevalence of CKD than the global average due to the factors mentioned above. Hence, the present study aimed to determine the prevalence of CKD in Saudi Arabia using data collected from a national laboratory database spanning from 2015 to 2022. Additionally, we sought to identify potential risk factors for CKD and examine the distribution of the disease across different regions. With access to comprehensive data, we anticipate our study will improve kidney care throughout Saudi Arabia.
Methods
Study design
To investigate the prevalence of CKD and its predictors, the researchers conducted a cross-sectional study that looked back at earlier data collected over eight years from the 1st of January 2015 to the 31st of December 2022. The data was sourced from 42 branches of Alborg laboratories, one of the largest commercial laboratories in the country, collectively representing all 13 administrative areas in the country, which are Albaha, Aljouf, Almadina, Alqasim, Asir, Eastern Region, Hail, Jazan, Makkah, Najran, Northern Borders, Riyadh, and Tabouk. For the Northern Borders area, information was only provided for the year 2022, and for the Tabouk area, the information provided spanned from 2018 to 2022. We obtained the data after an official request from AlBorg Laboratory. The dataset was fully de-identified and coded to ensure patient confidentiality. Data is accessible through the ethical committee of AlBorg Laboratory. Regarding data quality control, the laboratory follows stringent internal protocols to maintain accuracy and reliability in their results. Additionally, the dataset was reviewed for consistency before analysis to ensure its integrity for the study.
We included Saudi adults aged 18 years or above who lived in Saudi Arabia during the study period, received medical health services at Alborg Laboratory, and had the necessary data for calculating eGFR. We only included laboratory data from subjects who presented for regular checkups. Data requested by hospitals, inpatient wards, or dialysis centers were excluded.
Dependent and independent variables
The presence of CKD was the dependent variable. Renal function in individuals with CKD is assessed in terms of eGFR, which was calculated from blood serum creatinine (sCr) levels using the Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation [14]. Specifically, CKD was defined as reduced eGFR to below 60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 [15]. Disease stage was classified according to the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) recommendations, with eGFR values of ≥90, 60 to 89, 30 to 59, 15 to 29, and <15 ml/min per 1.73 m2 respectively denoting stages 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 [16].
Participant demographic characteristics such as age (categorized in 10-year bands), sex, year of visit, and region comprised the independent variables. Additionally, clinical and laboratory readings of body mass index (BMI), sCr levels, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), triglyceride levels, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), systolic blood pressure, and diastolic blood pressure were obtained. Regarding the lipid profile samples the patients were advised to present fasting. The blood pressure readings were obtained by the nurses using validated automated machines and recorded immediately to the patients’ records. History of hypertension or being on hypertensive medications could not be verified.
Statistical analysis
The prevalence of CKD was determined by dividing the total number of new and existing cases in each calendar year cohort by the active population in the Alborg dataset during that year and then multiplying the result by 100%. A 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was computed for the prevalence, assuming a Poisson distribution.
To model the dependent variable, which was binary (CKD vs. No CKD), the 'logit link function' of the generalized estimating equation (GEE) was utilized. Except for the sex variable, all other independent variables, including demographic and clinical laboratory readings, exhibited time dependence. Each independent variable was subjected to a univariate GEE analysis utilizing a logit link concerning the dependent variable, CKD. If the p-value obtained from that univariate analysis was 0.25 or less, the variable was deemed eligible for inclusion in the multivariate GEE model. The results of the GEE model are presented as odds ratios (ORs) along with corresponding 95% CIs and p-values. A p-value less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant.
No missing data was observed for the dependent variable. Data was missing for independent variables; however, this was classified as missing completely at random (MCAR) using the Little test (p-value = 0.09). The fraction of missing data varied from 3% to 27.4%. To address the issue of these missing data, SPSS v29 was utilized to conduct multiple imputations in 25 iterations. Subsequent analyses were conducted utilizing the pooled data. To ensure the validity of the multiple imputation, the outcomes were replicated utilizing available case analysis. An examination of the imputed and the original data using the three prevalent significance levels (0.01, 0.05, 0.1) revealed no statistically significant differences. Multicollinearity in the model was evaluated using variance inflation factor (VIF) values; all VIFs were less than 5, demonstrating the absence of multicollinearity. Data were analyzed using R, SPSS 29, and Excel.
Results
Prior to the application of any exclusion criteria, the distribution of the total population in the Alborg Laboratory dataset (n = 691,388) among the administrative regions in Saudi Arabia was comparable to the distribution of the Saudi Arabia population as reported in official sources (Supplementary 1) (https://www.stats.gov.sa/en).
After excluding Alborg laboratory visitors under the age of 18, 1,065,755 visits involving 664,684 individuals were identified from 2015 to 2022 (Table 1). Of those individuals, 368,464 (55.4%) were male. The mean age of participants was 40.35 years (SD = 14.5). The most came from the Makkah region, totalling 381,203 (35.77%), followed by the Riyadh region with 274,437 (25.75%). The highest number of visits was recorded in 2022 at 178,416 (16.7%), followed by 2020 with 151,462 visits (14.2%) (Table 1).
Clinical laboratory results for the study population are presented in Tables 2 and 3, which are respectively stratified by year and region. Kidney function was within the normal range, as indicated by the mean eGFR of 88 ml/min/1.73 m2 (SD = 26.98) and sCr of 0.81 mg/dl (SD = 0.54). The study population exhibited a general propensity towards overweight status with a mean BMI of 29.25 (SD = 5.86). In relation to lipid markers, the average LDL-C level was 129.80 mg/dL (SD = 37.1), and the average HDL-C level was 50.25 mg/dL (SD = 12.87). Despite being near the normal range, both markers failed to imply optimal lipid levels. Regarding glucose levels, the mean HbA1c was 5.79 percent (SD=1.32), indicating that most of the population was prediabetic. Based on the mean systolic blood pressure, most participants were classified as having elevated blood pressure, i.e., 124.34 mmHg (SD=23.10), according to American Heart Association classification of hypertension [17].
The prevalence of CKD in Saudi Arabia was examined from 2015 to 2022, as shown in Table 1, which identified an overall prevalence of 4.76%. Most individuals with CKD were classified as stage 3 (3.5%). A sex-based analysis revealed the prevalence of CKD to be higher among males compared to females, with rates of 5.83% and 3.88%, respectively. Furthermore, the prevalence of CKD was observed to increase with age: the prevalence among individuals aged 18–29 years was 0.45%, while among those 90 years or older, the prevalence rose dramatically to 50.94% (Fig 1).
Table 4 presents the results of the univariate and multivariate GEE logistic regression analyses examining factors associated with CKD prevalence in Saudi Arabia. The multivariate model revealed males to have significantly higher odds of having CKD, with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.65 (95% CI, 1.51–1.60). Age was also found to have a significant effect on CKD prevalence. Compared to the age group of 18–29 years, those aged 30–39 years had almost double the odds of having CKD, with an OR of 2.01 (95% CI, 1.78–2.26), while those aged 90 years or older had over two hundred times the odds of CKD, with an OR of 237.82 (95% CI, 200.19–282.52). Regarding the administrative regions in Saudi Arabia, Makkah and Jazan were characterized by higher odds of CKD, with ORs of 1.40 (95% CI, 1.26–1.55) and 1.34 (95% CI, 1.18–1.52), respectively. On the other hand, Najran and Alqasim had lower odds of CKD, with ORs of 0.47 (95% CI, 0.39–0.57) and 0.73 (95% CI, 0.64–0.82), respectively (Fig 2). There was no significant difference in CKD prevalence across different years of the study period. Analysis of clinical lab measurements revealed all of the examined parameters to have significant but small effects on CKD prevalence. For instance, HbA1c level was significantly associated with increased odds of CKD but with a minimal effect (OR = 1.03) (95% CI, 1.02-1.02). Complete information on lab measurements can be found in Table 3.
Discussion
Over the 7-year study period, 691,388 people were tested at Alborg Laboratories, with 55.4% being male and 44.6% female. The most tested age group was 30–39 years, representing 27.3% of the cohort. We found that 4.76% (95% CI: 4.72–4.80) of people in Saudi Arabia have CKD, with most of them in stage 3 (3.50%). Men had a higher prevalence (5.83%, 95% CI: 5.76–5.90) compared to women (3.88%, 95% CI: 3.83–3.93), and the probability of CKD increased with age. For example, individuals aged 60–69 years had a CKD prevalence of 16.71%, while those aged 80–89 years had a much higher prevalence of 45.14%. Among the administrative regions, populations in Makkah (6.32%, 95% CI: 6.24–6.40) and Jazan (4.55%, 95% CI: 4.35–4.75) showed higher odds of CKD. Additionally, there was a significant association between CKD and HbA1c levels.
In this study, the prevalence of CKD was 4.76%, similar to the prior report of Alsuwaida et al., who identified a prevalence of 5.7% as determined by the MDRD-3 equation, and 5.3% when using the CKD-EPI equation [7]. A higher prevalence (13.8%) was reported by Mousa et al. [18]; however, that study was conducted on subjects with a significant family history of ESRD, which inherently places them at higher risk of CKD compared to the general population. Notably, the prevalence of CKD in Saudi Arabia appears to be lower than that in neighbouring countries. For instance, in Egypt, a prevalence of 13.0% has been reported [19], while a meta-analysis conducted in African countries revealed a pooled prevalence of 10.1%. Similarly, a study conducted in North Africa revealed a prevalence of 15.8% [20]. The variation in CKD prevalence across studies may be attributed to differences in sample size, characteristics of the study population, diagnostic criteria, and CKD assessment methodology. Understanding these disparities is crucial for accurately interpreting and contextualizing CKD prevalence estimates from diverse research settings.
The pathophysiology of CKD seems to exhibit sex-specific differences. It is believed that women progress at a slower rate than men [21, 22]. Hormones are presumed to play a role in shaping these sex differences, with potentially beneficial effects of estrogen or detrimental effects of testosterone [23]. In our study, the prevalence of CKD was higher among males than females. This aligns with previous reports of a higher prevalence of CKD among male patients from the study region [24] but contrasts with global reports of a higher prevalence among females [25].
It has been recognized that eGFR diminishes concomitantly with age [26]. This study found a statistically significant association between increasing age and the odds of having CKD in both univariate and multivariate analyses. The odds increased from 0.45% among adults aged 18–30 years to 50.94% among those aged 80–89 years. Similarly, in a Chinese study, the prevalence of CKD escalated from 7.4% among those aged 18–39 years to 18.0% among individuals aged 60–69 years and further to 24.2% among those aged 70 years and above [27]. Similar trends of rising CKD prevalence with age are evident in populations across the United States [28], Canada [29], and Europe [30].
Diabetes mellitus stands as one of the primary causes of CKD and ESRD. Kidney diseases in patients with diabetes can arise from various sources, including microvascular complications directly related to diabetes, a separate kidney disease of another origin, or a combination of both factors [31]. As expected, we found a statistically significant association between blood sugar levels (HBA1C) and CKD in the study population. The univariate model revealed a significant association between HbA1c levels and the odds of having CKD, with an OR of 1.43 (95% CI: 1.43–1.44). This suggests that for each unit increase in HbA1c (%), the odds of CKD increase by 43%, assuming other factors remain constant. Upon adjusting for potential confounders, the strength of this association was attenuated but remained statistically significant. The adjusted odds ratio was 1.10 (95% CI: 1.09–1.11), indicating that with each unit increase in HbA1c (%), the odds of CKD increase by 10% when other covariates in the model are held constant.
The association between CKD and hypertension is bidirectional in terms of pathophysiology. The prevalence of hypertension is estimated to increase significantly in the later stages of CKD [32]. Intensive blood pressure control can protect further kidney damage in CKD patients [33]. In our study, we found a significant association between CKD prevalence and systolic blood pressure. These findings align with previously published literature [34, 35]. Salt and water retention, activation of the renin angiotensin system, renal artery stenosis, endothelial damage, and drug-induced hypertension are the common mechanisms of hypertension development in CKD patients [36].
Despite that our CKD prevalence is similar to the study of Alsuwaida et al [7], The risk factors associated with CKD in our study differed from those reported by Alsuwaida et al. Several factors may explain this observation. First, our study had a substantially larger sample size (664,684 participants) compared to Alsuwaida et al.'s study (491 participants). Additionally, our participants were recruited from all 13 administrative regions of Saudi Arabia, whereas Alsuwaida et al.'s study included participants exclusively from Riyadh city.
Our study revealed significant variation in CKD prevalence across Saudi Arabia, ranging between 2.32% and 6.32%, with the highest prevalence observed in the Makkah and Jazan regions and the lowest in Najran and Alqasim. Previous national studies are not available to detect changes in prevalence over time, and overall data regarding CKD reporting in the country are lacking. The high prevalence of CKD in the Makkah region may be explained by the millions of older visitors who come annually for pilgrimages; hence, the findings may not represent the actual prevalence of CKD in the region. Jazan, meanwhile, is a coastal region in the south-eastern part of Saudi Arabia. A common factor between the Makkah and Jazan regions is that large portions of both regions are on the coast of the Red Sea. This geographical positioning, along with other environmental factors, could be linked to an increased risk of CKD. Environmental and lifestyle factors should be further investigated to understand the potential causes of higher CKD prevalence in these regions.
While a previous study reported a higher CKD prevalence among relatives of patients on Haemodialysis (HD) in the southern region [18], we did not find a meaningful increase in prevalence in the southern region compared to other parts of the country. This could be due to the nature of the sample in the previous study, which comprised people at higher risk of CKD, and the smaller sample size relative to our study.
Finally, the present study found only minimal association of CKD with hypertension, BMI, and lipid profile parameters. Given the nature of laboratory evaluations, the accurate diagnosis of diseases like hypertension can be challenging; therefore, caution should be taken when assessing these results.
Strengths and limitations
This study on the prevalence of CKD in Saudi Arabia is not just a data collection but a significant contribution to healthcare delivery and maintenance. It unveils the geospatial pattern of CKD over time, a crucial piece of information for policymakers and the Saudi health system. Moreover, the study delves into various sociodemographic factors associated with CKD; targeted screening programs should be implemented for high-risk populations, particularly males and older adults. This understanding is the key to effectively implementing a surveillance system and screening programs to alleviate the burden of CKD in Saudi Arabia. One of the major strengths of our study is its comprehensive data collection process. We gathered data from across the country, covering various individuals. The data were collected nationwide from 42 branches of Alborg laboratories in 13 regions, indicating that the study's findings likely represent the entire Saudi Arabian population. Region-specific interventions are recommended, focusing on areas such as Makkah and Jazan, where CKD prevalence is notably higher. Primary prevention strategies should include public health campaigns promoting awareness about CKD risk factors, such as diabetes and hypertension, and encouraging routine health check-ups to detect CKD at earlier stages. Lastly, longitudinal data collection and registry systems should be enhanced to monitor CKD trends and evaluate the effectiveness of interventions, ensuring evidence-based policymaking and sustainable healthcare practices.
Like any research, our study also has limitations. We acknowledge the potential for incomplete or inconsistent data collection and the possibility of missing data. We also note that the study did not evaluate certain factors, such as the cause, genetic predisposition, environmental toxins, and associated comorbid conditions and their duration. The definition of CKD in the study was limited to decreased eGFR without considering albuminuria status or structural damage. Moreover, we might have selection bias in our study, where we failed to include some participants’ data from certain areas in our study such as Northern border area and Aljouf during the entire recruitment period. Finally, the study's cross-sectional design restricts its ability to assess causality. These limitations are important to consider when interpreting the findings of our study.
Conclusions
This study highlights the prevalence of CKD in Saudi Arabia, showing significant demographic and geographic variations. Key risk factors include age, male sex, and elevated HbA1c levels. These findings emphasize the need for targeted screening and prevention strategies, especially for at-risk populations. Continued surveillance, early detection, and effective management are crucial to reducing CKD's burden and improving kidney health outcomes in Saudi Arabia. Further research is essential to better understand the disease's regional and demographic drivers.
Data availability
The data that supports the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request due to the privacy of the patients’ data.
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Acknowledgements
The authors extend their appreciation to the Deanship of Scientific Research at King Khalid University (KKU) for funding this work through a small-group project under grant number (RGP.1/197/44). The authors also acknowledge the assistance and guidance provided by the KKU Center for Medical and Health Research (CMHR).
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MA, HA, KO designed the study. KO cleaned the data, did the statistical analysis, and finalized the results section. MA and HA wrote the initial manuscript. The rest of the authors helped in data acquisition, informatics support, and revised the manuscript. All the authors reviewed and approved the final version of the manuscript.
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The King Khalid University committee of research ethics granted ethical approval for this study on 19–02-2023 with the approval number ECM#2023–708. The study further received ethical approval from the Unit of Biomedical Ethics in Alborg Laboratory, under IRB Approval Number No08/23.
Consent to participate was waived from our study due to the nature of the study and approved from The King Khalid University committee of research ethics with the approval number ECM#2023-708.
The use of human tissue samples must confirm that all experiments were performed in accordance with relevant guidelines and regulations.
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Alshehri, M.A., Alkhlady, H.Y., Awan, Z.A. et al. Prevalence of chronic kidney disease in Saudi Arabia: an epidemiological population-based study. BMC Nephrol 26, 37 (2025). https://doiorg.publicaciones.saludcastillayleon.es/10.1186/s12882-025-03954-2
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DOI: https://doiorg.publicaciones.saludcastillayleon.es/10.1186/s12882-025-03954-2